Oilers provide price for maple leafs

Saturday night’s performance between the Maple Leafs and Oilers did not disappoint, unless you wager later. The Oilers went into the game as a +135 road underdog and played well through the first two periods. In fact, when the Ulcers took a 2–1 lead, teams were deadlocked into statistical categories such as expected goals and shot attempts, according to Evolution Hockey. A late second period goal put the Oilers up 3–1.

However, the Oilers moved to a defensive shell and the Maple Leafs enjoyed a 23–12 lead in shot attempts and generated nearly 80 percent of the expected goals in the third period. The home team tied the game for less than four minutes in regulation and Aston Matthews defeated his 22nd goal of the season in 54 overs to give the Maple Leafs a 4-3 victory. Toronto has dominated the season series with Edmonton 3.6–2.0 winning six out of eight matches.

Monday will mark the final time that both teams will go face-to-face in the regular season, and although the Maple Leafs are clearly the better team, the Oilers have the value to support at the right price. Both clubs rank among the best in the NHL by expected goals.

Betters who want to return the underdog Oils should be looking for better odds than the closing line (+130) of the previous game. By my estimation, the Maple Leafs should be priced at -130 as their chances of winning are around 56.5 percent. The Oilers did not play the entire game on Saturday after sitting idle for a week due to the postponement. Bet on the Oilers to steal two points from the Maple Leafs on +135 or better on Monday. But the oilers were available throughout the day at +140 or better, so it would make sense to shop.

Austen Matthews (L) and Connor McDavid
Austen Matthews (L) and Connor McDavid
Getty Images

Elsewhere in the North Division, the Jets will rebound after a brutal performance by backup goalkeeper Laurent Brossoit in a third straight meeting vs. the Flames. The Jets played well in helpless flames in both games, but could not overcome the Brossois’ poor game. It was not a spectacular performance by the Jets’ skaters, but their inability to score goals negatively caused any momentum and prevented the team from defeating the flames on back-to-back nights. It will be a different story on Monday, however, with Connor Helbuyuk in the Jets’ crease.

Jacob Markstrom will likely be aiming for the Flames, but the tradeoff is what the bookies should accept. Hellebuk won on Friday and the bookies should expect to repeat that game. With Hellebuk in goal, I think the Jets will win the game about 54.5 percent of the time, which means they should carry the -120 price tag in Monday’s matchup. Desperation can only take a team like flames. His performance under new head coach Darryl Sutter has been poor. Can place bets on the Jets at -110 or better, but expect a good value as the Jets were going through a road in both games before this one.

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