Coyotes at Penguins is the biggest mismatch on the NHL betting board on Tuesday night, but there is a glimmer of hope for those who fancy a flutter on the underdog.
Pittsburgh’s defensive sturdiness has been the key to its success this season, but the Pens have been leaky since the NHL returned to play after the holidays. On the season, the Pens allow 2.15 goals on 2.25 expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Over the last 11 games, Pittsburgh has conceded 2.61 goals on 2.59 expected goals per 60.
The Coyotes are probably still the worst team in the league, but they’re scoring more than 3.0 goals per 60 minutes at even strength in their last 11 contests. Clayton Keller leads the team in scoring for the season with 15 goals and 31 points, and goaltender Karel Vejmelka is garnering a reputation for stealing games against terrific teams. In the last two weeks, they beat the Maple Leafs and took the Avalanche to a shootout as one of the biggest underdogs in recent NHL history.
At +310, the Coyotes have an implied win probability of 24.4 percent. With Pittsburgh’s defense struggling, I think Arizona wins this game more than 25 percent of the time, so this price is worth a shot.
The play: Coyotes, +310.