We’ve broken down our statistical modeling strategy for the John Deere Classic, and now it’s time to share some picks.
We begin as always with our top derivative selections for the event. As a result of the relatively weak field, I’m focusing my attention on derivative bets further down the leaderboard — two top-30 and one top-40 market — that provide value based both on modeling outputs and overall course history.
With that in mind, let’s dive into my best derivative bets for the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run. All odds come courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.
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Best Bet #1 – J.T. Poston Top-30 Finish (+120)
Poston arrives at TPC Deere Run in strong form after tying for second last week at The Travelers and should continue his success at the John Deere.
Poston ranks 10th overall in the field across his last 12 qualifying rounds and third overall in the field across his previous 24 qualifying rounds. Further, just in his last 12 rounds on courses under 7,200 yards, Poston ranks first in the field.
Although TPC Deere Run *technically* doesn’t fit this distinction, it correlates closely enough with courses like TPC River Highlands, TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm and Harbour Town — all courses where Poston finished ninth or better — that I’m willing to add the qualifier.
In that statistical modeling output, Poston ranks fifth in the field in SG: approach, third in birdies or better gained and first in the field in bogey avoidance. He’s also first in SG: Par 4’s, second in GIRs gained and 17th in fairways gained.
The one concern with Poston is that he has poor course history at TPC Deere Run — two missed cuts, a 65th and a 64th — while losing strokes on approach in all four of those appearances. However, I’m willing to overlook that as a result of the fact Poston has gained on approach in four of his last five events and has gained strokes putting in two straight John Deere’s.
For all those reasons, buy on Poston to continue his success this week in Illinois.
Best Bet #2 – John Huh Top-30 Finish (+130)
Huh has quietly put together strong finishes in his last three events and now finds himself at a course that fits his game well.
Although he’s finished outside the top-50 in six of seven appearances at the John Deere — save for a T-7th in 2018 — Huh has posted three consecutive top-25 finishes, including a T-13th last week at the Travelers.
Over the last 12 rounds, Huh ranks first overall in my statistical output. Although it’s somewhat concerning he’s 131st in putting between 10 and 15, the other individual metrics are all strong. Huh ranks 10th or better in the field in SG: approach (7th), birdies or better gained (5th), bogey avoidance (3rd), SG: Par 4’s (6th) and putting between five and 10 feet (7th).
Further, Huh ranks 13th in fairways gained, 20th in GIRs gained and 11th in SG: Par 5’s. He’s also fifth in the field in his last 12 rounds on courses under 7,200 yards and eighth in SG: total on such courses.
Thus, even though he doesn’t own the best course history at TPC Deere Run, I believe Huh is well positioned to continue his strong run of form.
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Best Bet #3 – Chez Reavie Top-40 Finish (+105)
The last two months have proven incredibly strong for Reavie, who also arrives with good course history at TPC Deere Run.
Across his last five starts, Reavie has made four cuts and finished no worse than 27th in those four events. Just last week at the Travelers, he finished in a tie for eighth. Plus, Reavie has made six appearances at the John Deere Classic and made the cut in five. In those five made cuts, he has three top-40 finishes and two top-20 outputs, including a T-18 last year.
In terms of his modeling output, the word I would use to describe Reavie is steady. Over his last eight rounds on courses under 7,200 yards, Reavie ranks second in the field. Just in his last 12 rounds in general, he’s fourth in the field. Across his last 24 rounds, he’s sixth in the field.
Regarding the former output, Reavie ranks first in the field in fairways gained, third in GIRs gained and 10th in birdies or better gained. Further, he’s 27th or better in bogey avoidance (27th), SG: Par 5’s (21st) and SG: Par 4’s (20th).
Although he’s 44th in SG: approach, I’m encouraged by the fact he’s gained on approach in five straight appearances at TPC Deere Run. He’s also gained with the putter in three of his last five appearances at this track.
As a result, back Reavie up to +100 for a top-40 finish at an event where he’s had success.
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