Our UFC betting expert previews Week 4 of Dana White’s Contender Series. Below are his predictions and best betting picks for Tuesday’s matchups starting at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Another weekly installment of Dana White’s Contenders Series takes center stage on Tuesday. It won’t have the star power that the most recent installment did last Tuesday with NCAA wrestling champion Bo Nickal, but it should still be a fun night of fights.
It should be an excellent taste test before UFC 278 this weekend. Picks for this weekend’s PPV card will be live on Saturday and will feature the return of special guest MMA betting expert Luca Fury, so be sure to check back here for some top-tier analysis later in the weekend.
As for tonight’s picks, we wanted to reiterate that these fights cannot be bet on in New York, but are available in most other states across the United States.
Typically, sportsbooks roll out these odds slowly. However, if you are in New Jersey, Bet365 is very reliable in offering an extensive list of prop bets for Dana White’s Contenders Series.
New customers only. Must be 21+. AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, LA, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY only. (Welcome Offer not available in NY & PA) Full T&C apply.
New users only, 21 or older. NY, CO, DC, IA, IN, IL, MI, NV, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV only. Full T&Cs apply.
21+. New customers only. AZ, CT, IA, IL, LA, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, WV, WY only. T&C apply
Dana White’s Contenders Series odds, picks, and predictions
Claudia Leite (-115) vs. Hailey Cowan (-105)
The great line on Claudia Leite is long gone, unfortunately. Leite opened as a sizeable underdog in this fight, but has since been up to favorite status. If you got that line, congrats, you are a sharp MMA mind who is long-term profitable, regardless of the outcome.
Both Leite and Hailey Cowan are low-level MMA fighters who do not offer a ton in the way of future contender status. Cowan is an irresponsible grappler in terms of positional exposure — she puts herself at risk in so many spots — but each fighter could have questions about cardio in any exchanges.
These styles clash, so grappling exchanges could sap Cowan’s gas tank, and striking exchanges could tire Leite out in just a few minutes.
Sportsbooks are expecting this to go to a decision over 60% of the time. The even money is about right on the moneyline. Basically, every low-level MMA fight is a coin flip.
Cowan looks so raw on the ground that Leite should have a good spot on the submission prop which comes in at +650, which is the best line on the market. If you can find it, bet small, as these amateur fights carry tons of variance.
Leite vs. Cowan pick
- Leite wins by submission +650
Betting on Sports?
Jack Cartwright (-108) vs. Jose Johnson (-108)
Another coin-flip here, as two fighters face off in the bantamweight division. Jose Johnson is 14-7 and is training with SBG Manchester, a gym that Conor McGregor has trained at a few times.
Just from a practical standpoint, bantamweight rarely have this high of a line to go to decision. FightMatrix.com has calculated the data, and 49.6% of fights in this division go to decision.
Both of these fighters have a handful of decisions on their amateur and pro resume. Johnson in particular, is a reason to back this fight to hit the scorecards, as seven of his 21 career bouts have hit the cards.
Johnson was on the Contenders Series once before, and that fight was against Ronnie Lawrence, a fight he lost by decision.