Josh Allen to repeat as top quarterback

Onto the quarterbacks! Last week, I came to you with tight end rankings, and expressed the sneaky importance of landing a stud early at the position. 

Quarterbacks are a little different — you usually can find studs all throughout the draft, and though I’m not the guy who will set a hard line and tell you to never take a quarterback early, it’s important to understand the opportunity cost if you do so. (If you play in a Superflex or two-QB league, you must take at least one QB in your first two picks, but assume we’re talking about standard format when ADP is involved.) 

Josh Allen was the QB1 last year, but he cost a third or fourth-round pick. Justin Herbert and Tom Brady — QBs 2 and 3, respectively — both averaged fewer than two points less per game, and could have been had in the seventh or eighth. With that Allen pick, you could have gotten D’Andre Swift, Cooper Kupp, Chris Godwin or Mark Andrews. Though you could have landed Deebo Samuel with the Herbert/Brady pick, you were likely deciding between guys such as Chase Claypool, Kenny Golladay, Melvin Gordon or Ronald Jones. 

Josh Allen
Josh Allen
Getty Images

Of course, Samuel and Leonard Fournette-level sleepers come out of those later rounds every year, but your chances of hitting on RBs and WRs become much slimmer the later you get in the draft. Conversely, you still can get viable QB1s as late as Round 12 — though the Kirk Cousinses of the world won’t have the same weekly upside as the Lamar Jacksons. 

Like with every position in fantasy football, the draft is a case-by-case situation. So, let’s go through some of those cases. 

1. Josh Allen, Bills (ADP: 21.7) 

A lethal passer and willing, physical runner who has scored at least six rushing touchdowns in all four of his professional seasons. He also broke the curse of QB1 regression set by Patrick Mahomes (QB1 in 2018, QB8 in 2019) and Lamar Jackson (QB1 in 2019, QB10 in 2020) by repeating as the top scorer in 2021. The question you have to ask yourself: Is the late second or early third round too rich for your blood? A non-comprehensive list of players I would draft before Allen: Tee Higgins, Keenan Allen, Michael Pittman, Kyle Pitts. 

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