Arsenal is set to face Manchester City in a highly-anticipated Premier League match that could determine the winner of the 2022-23 title. However, Arsenal’s poor track record against Manchester City over the past few years could hinder their chances of winning the league for the first time since 2003-04.
The Gunners have lost their last 11 Premier League games against Man City, which is their longest losing streak against a single opponent in the league. In their six Premier League visits to the Etihad Stadium during Pep Guardiola’s tenure as Man City manager, Arsenal has lost all of them, with the aggregate score being 17-3. Additionally, Arsenal hasn’t won at Man City since January 2015.
Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta, who was previously Pep Guardiola’s assistant at Man City, has lost all six of his Premier League games against Man City.
Arsenal needs to win this game as Man City is only five points behind them, with two games in hand. However, Arsenal has struggled to score in recent years at the Etihad Stadium, netting just three goals in their last 10 Premier League games against Man City and failing to score in seven of them.
Arsenal will be missing William Saliba, Mohamed Elneny, and Takehiro Tomiyasu due to injuries. Granit Xhaka is also a doubt for the match after missing the previous game due to illness. Gabriel Jesus and Oleksandr Zinchenko, who both won the Premier League title with Man City in the previous two seasons, are both fit to face their former club. Nathan Ake is the only absentee from Man City’s team due to a hamstring injury he picked up against Bayern Munich.
LAST MEETING
Back in February, Manchester City secured a 3-1 win against Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium in a rearranged Premier League fixture.
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At the time of the match, City were three points behind Arsenal in the standings but had played a game more than their rivals. This victory took them level on points with the Gunners and ahead of them on goal difference in the Premier League table.
The game was characterized by individual errors that cost Arsenal. Kevin de Bruyne capitalized on Takehiro Tomiyasu’s under-hit backpass to open the scoring after 24 minutes, lofting the ball over Arsenal goalkeeper Aaron Ramsdale.
Arsenal managed to draw level just before half-time, with Bukayo Saka scoring from the spot after City goalkeeper Ederson fouled Eddie Nketiah. However, Man City improved after half-time and secured all three points with goals from Jack Grealish and Erling Haaland. Grealish’s goal was another result of an error, this time Gabriel losing possession in his own half to Bernardo Silva.
Haaland’s goal was his 26th in the Premier League this season, equaling the record set by a Manchester City player in a single EPL campaign, held by Sergio Agüero in 2014-15.
This was Manchester City’s second competitive win of the 2022-23 season against Arsenal, having previously eliminated them from the FA Cup in January with a 1-0 win at the Etihad Stadium, with Nathan Ake scoring the only goal of the game past Arsenal goalkeeper Matt Turner in the second half.
RECENT FORM
Manchester City have won eight of their last nine matches in the Premier League, with their last six wins in a row. They have an impressive record at home, winning 17 of their last 19 league games (with one draw and one loss), but their last four defeats at Etihad Stadium were all against London teams: Chelsea, Crystal Palace, Tottenham Hotspur, and Brentford.
In all competitions, City have remained undefeated in their last 16 matches, winning 13 of them. The only matches they didn’t win were two 1-1 draws against Nottingham Forest in the Premier League and against RB Leipzig and Bayern Munich in the UEFA Champions League. Their last competitive loss was against Tottenham Hotspur in London on February 5th, when they lost 1-0.
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In their most recent game, City defeated Sheffield United 3-0 in the FA Cup semi-final at Wembley Stadium, with Riyad Mahrez scoring all three goals. This was the first FA Cup semi-final hat-trick at Wembley Stadium and the first in the competition’s semi-finals since Alex Dawson scored for Manchester United against Fulham in 1958. The win has secured City’s place in the FA Cup final against rivals Manchester United in June.
On the other hand, Arsenal has been struggling lately with three consecutive score draws, which have hindered their hopes of winning the Premier League title. In their last two away games, they took two-goal leads but eventually drew 2-2 against both Liverpool and West Ham United. They also drew 3-3 with bottom-of-the-league side Southampton at the Emirates Stadium, saving a point with late goals from Martin Odegaard and Bukayo Saka.
Despite this, Arsenal currently has the longest unbeaten run in the Premier League, with 10 games, one more than both Manchester City and Aston Villa. Their last competitive loss was in their previous meeting with Manchester City at home in February.
KEY PLAYERS
Manchester City – Erling Haaland
Erling Haaland is the clear choice as Manchester City’s most likely match-winner. The Norwegian striker has scored an impressive 48 goals in 42 appearances across all competitions in the 2022-23 season, setting a record for a Premier League player in a single season.
He has accounted for 38% of City’s 127 competitive goals this season, and his 48 goals are only one less than the combined total of their next four highest scorers.
Haaland has also scored 32 Premier League goals for City, tying the record for the most goals in a 38-game campaign, with 20 of these goals scored at the Etihad Stadium – the most home goals by a player in a season since 2007-08.
Arsenal – Gabriel Martinelli
Arsenal will be relying on Gabriel Martinelli to provide the goals they need to win this match. The Brazilian forward has been in excellent form in the Premier League, having been involved in 11 goals in his last 10 games for the Gunners, scoring eight goals and providing three assists.
Overall, he has scored 15 goals in the league this season, equalling the record for the most goals scored by a Brazilian player in a single campaign, which was set by Roberto Firmino in the 2017-18 season.
Martinelli is not only a goal scorer, but also a creative force in the Arsenal team. He has the best xG assisted (7.71) and xG assisted per 90 (0.27) from open play among all Arsenal players who have played at least 1,000 minutes this season.
He should be a starter for Arsenal alongside Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Jesus in a three-pronged attack, ahead of Leandro Trossard who was signed from Brighton in January.
PREDICTION
According to the Opta supercomputer, Manchester City are favored to win this match, with a 62% chance of beating Arsenal. Arsenal’s chances of winning are rated at 15.3%, and the probability of a draw is 22.7%.
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