UCL PREVIEW: Real Madrid vs Manchester City: Tactical analysis, predictions

VENUE: Estadio Santiago Bernabeu

Time: 8.pm

PREVIEW

On Tuesday night, Real Madrid will face Manchester City at the Santiago Bernabéu Stadium in a highly anticipated UEFA Champions League semi-final match.

The two teams have met on eight previous occasions in European competition, with an even head-to-head record of three wins each and two draws. However, recent form favors Manchester City, who have won three of their last four encounters.

Nevertheless, Real Madrid emerged victorious in their last meeting, securing a dramatic 3-1 victory in the second leg of last year’s semi-final in Spain.

Before Real Madrid’s comeback in that game, it seemed that Manchester City were on the verge of becoming the first English club to defeat Real Madrid away from home more than once in the Champions League. They now have another opportunity to break that record in this upcoming match.

Historically, English teams have struggled at the Santiago Bernabéu, winning only four of their 18 UCL away games against Real Madrid, with Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, and Manchester City each winning there once.

Goals are expected in this encounter, as the previous four Champions League matches between Real Madrid and Manchester City have produced a total of 17 goals, averaging at 4.3 per match. Despite Manchester City having more shots on target (31) compared to Real Madrid (17) in those four games, the Spanish side has been more clinical, converting 47% of their attempts on target compared to City’s 29%.

Pep Guardiola, the manager of Manchester City, has not won the UEFA Champions League since 2011 with Barcelona. He now faces Carlo Ancelotti, the coach with the most UCL/European Cup titles in history, with four. Guardiola will be hoping to avoid further disappointment in the semi-finals, as a loss in this tie would make him join José Mourinho as the coach with the most defeats in UCL semi-finals in the competition’s history, with six losses. However, if Manchester City progresses, their aspirations for a historic treble would remain within reach.

LAST MEETING

Real Madrid and Manchester City are set to face each other once again in the UEFA Champions League semi-final, replicating their thrilling encounter from last season. In the 2021-2022 campaign, Real Madrid emerged victorious with a 6-5 aggregate score, marking one of the most exciting ties of the tournament.

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During the first leg at the Etihad Stadium, Manchester City secured a 4-3 win. However, their fortunes took a drastic turn in the second leg at the Santiago Bernabéu Stadium. Despite leading 1-0 in the match and 5-3 on aggregate until the 90th minute, thanks to Riyad Mahrez’s goal in the 73rd minute, Man City suffered a late collapse.

RECENT FORM

Manchester City enters the semi-final clash with an impressive unbeaten streak of 20 competitive matches, with their last defeat dating back to February 5 against Tottenham Hotspur. They have won their last five games, including a 2-1 victory over Leeds United in their most recent match.

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Real Madrid, under the guidance of Carlo Ancelotti, secured a 2-1 win against Osasuna in the Copa del Rey final. However, their recent form has been inconsistent, with away losses to Real Sociedad and Girona sandwiched between a home win over Almeria in La Liga.

Real Madrid has been dominant in the UEFA Champions League, winning 10 of their last 12 matches and all of their last five. They have been particularly strong at home, winning nine of their last 10 UCL matches. However, their only defeat in this period came against English opposition, a 3-2 loss to Chelsea in last season’s quarter-final.

In terms of knockout matches, Real Madrid has been in exceptional form, winning their last six in the UEFA Champions League. Only Bayern Munich has enjoyed a longer winning streak in the history of the competition.

Manchester City has also been formidable in the Champions League, losing just one of their last 16 matches and remaining unbeaten in the last 10 since their defeat to Real Madrid at the same stage last season. They have conceded the fewest goals of any team in this season’s competition and have kept six clean sheets, second only to Bayern Munich.

To reach the semi-finals, Manchester City eliminated Bayern Munich in the previous round with a 4-1 aggregate victory. They had previously defeated RB Leipzig in the round of 16 with an 8-1 aggregate score.

Real Madrid’s path to the semi-finals included victories over two other Premier League clubs, Chelsea and Liverpool, in the knockout stages. They finished at the top of their group, ahead of RB Leipzig, Shakhtar Donetsk, and Celtic.

Both teams enter the semi-final with impressive credentials, setting the stage for an exciting encounter in the UEFA Champions League.

KEY PLAYERS

Real Madrid – Vinicius Junior

Real Madrid boasts several threats to the Manchester City defense, but one player who stands out as a significant danger is forward Vinícius Júnior. In the current season, he leads La Liga players across all competitions in assists (19), chances created (101), and total goal involvements (41, comprising 22 goals and 19 assists).

Notably, almost all of his chances created (100 out of 101) have come from open play, underscoring the threat he poses to Manchester City’s hopes of reaching the UEFA Champions League final.

Vinícius Júnior’s greatest asset lies in his ability to dribble at pace and effortlessly maneuver past opponents. In the 2022-23 season, no player at a top-five European league club has been involved in more shots following a ball carry than the Brazilian at Real Madrid.

He has attempted 59 shots and created 51 chances for his teammates after carrying the ball, with a combined total of 110 involvements—24 more than his closest rival, Rafael Leão of Milan (86).

Remarkably, Vinícius Júnior has either scored or assisted a goal in each of his last nine competitive appearances, tallying nine assists and three goals. Additionally, he has been involved in a goal in each of his last 10 starts for Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League, contributing seven goals and five assists during that impressive run.

Manchester City – Erling Haaland

Erling Haaland’s debut season at Manchester City has been nothing short of remarkable. The prolific striker has netted an astounding 51 goals in 46 competitive appearances during the 2022-23 campaign, surpassing any other player in the top five European leagues by a margin of 15 goals.

Across all competitions, he has maintained an exceptional scoring rate, averaging a goal every 70 minutes, making him a formidable threat for Tuesday night’s match.

Haaland currently leads the goal-scoring charts in the UEFA Champions League this season, with his tally of 12 goals being the highest for a player at a Premier League club since Ruud van Nistelrooy achieved the feat with Manchester United in the 2002-03 season.

Remarkably, his overall record in the Champions League is truly astonishing, with 35 goals in just 27 games, averaging a goal every 58 minutes. This makes him the most efficient scorer in the history of the tournament among players who have scored at least five goals.

In the quarter-final victory over Bayern Munich, Haaland found the net in both legs, adding to his five-goal haul in the second leg against RB Leipzig. With seven goals in his last three Champions League matches, it would be unwise to bet against him adding to his tally in this highly anticipated encounter.